Global and North American Perspectives
Natural gas continues to play a pivotal role in the global energy mix, bridging the gap between traditional fossil fuels and renewable sources amid rising electricity demand from data centers, AI infrastructure, and industrial growth. Forecasts from major organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and others indicate steady demand growth through 2030, driven by LNG exports, power generation, and emerging markets in Asia. However, the pace varies by scenario, with supply abundance potentially softening prices and unlocking additional price-sensitive demand. This article delves into production numbers, high-growth regions, price expectations, and the related liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market, with a dual focus on global trends and North America.
Global Natural Gas Production and Demand Outlook
Global natural gas demand is projected to rise modestly but consistently through 2030, supported by industrial expansion and power needs in developing economies. According to recent IEA reports (including Gas 2025 and updates), worldwide demand growth accelerates in 2026 with new LNG supply waves, fostering stronger increases. Global LNG supply is expected to grow significantly, with additions leading to potential surpluses in some scenarios. Key drivers include Asia-Pacific demand (accounting for around half of incremental growth in 2026 and beyond) and emerging LNG export capacity from North America and the Middle East.
Between 2025 and 2030, new LNG export capacity is projected to increase by around 300 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/yr), a substantial jump. Natural gas demand growth remains positive, though tempered by energy transitions, efficiency gains, and renewables in mature markets.
Global Inland Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts (IEA Base Case, in bcm)
| Year | Global | Asia Pacific | Middle East | North America | Europe | Eurasia | Africa | Central/South America |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~4,400+ | ~1,050+ | ~660+ | ~1,170–1,180 | ~500–510 | ~660–670 | ~180 | ~150–155 |
| 2027 | ~4,450+ | ~1,080+ | ~680+ | ~1,175–1,190 | ~500 | ~665–675 | ~185 | ~152–155 |
| 2028 | ~4,500+ | ~1,110+ | ~695+ | ~1,190–1,205 | ~485–490 | ~675–680 | ~190 | ~155 |
| 2029 | ~4,560+ | ~1,145+ | ~710+ | ~1,205–1,220 | ~475 | ~680–685 | ~190 | ~158 |
| 2030 | ~4,630+ | ~1,180+ | ~730+ | ~1,220+ | ~465 | ~685 | ~195 | ~160 |
Note: Approximate figures based on IEA Gas Market Reports and related analyses (2025–2026 updates). Growth is led by Asia Pacific and the Middle East, with North America showing moderate increases driven by domestic power and export demand.
Regions with the Biggest Production Growth
Production growth will concentrate in regions with abundant resources and export infrastructure:
- North America (especially U.S.): Led by Permian, Appalachia, and Haynesville shale plays. U.S. dry gas production expected near or above 109 Bcf/d in 2026, with continued growth to support LNG exports.
- Middle East: Qatar and others adding significant LNG capacity (Qatar expansions key).
- Asia Pacific: China domestic production and demand growth; emerging LNG imports in India and Southeast Asia.
Incremental demand 2026–2030 is heavily weighted toward Asia Pacific (~50% of global additions) and the Middle East, while North America sees production-led export growth.
Expected Natural Gas Prices
Prices are expected to remain relatively soft in the near term due to supply growth, then rise with demand pressures (LNG exports, power sector, data centers). For the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark (EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2026 update):
- 2026: Average just under $3.50/MMBtu (down ~2% from 2025 levels, with some quarterly variation around $3.38–$3.50).
- 2027: Sharp rebound, potentially up ~33% (averages around $4.59/MMBtu in some forecasts).
- By 2030: Long-term projections point to ~$3.80–$4.00+/MMBtu, depending on export and demand trajectories.
Globally, Asian (JKM) and European (TTF) prices are expected to converge toward LNG netback economics, remaining higher than Henry Hub but supported by tight balances in peak periods.
LPG Market Forecasts
LPG (often co-produced with natural gas) benefits from similar supply dynamics. The global liquefied petroleum gas market is forecasted to grow steadily:
| Year | Global Market Size (USD Billion) | North America Market Size (USD Billion, approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 163.06 | ~29–30 (est.) |
| 2027 | ~170–171 | ~30–31 |
| 2028 | ~178 | ~32 |
| 2029 | ~186–187 | ~33–34 |
| 2030 | ~195–204 (up to 2031 projections ~203.94) | ~35 (U.S. alone projected ~24+ by 2030) |
Sources: Mordor Intelligence, Grand View Research, and related market analyses (CAGR ~4.6% globally; North America driven by petrochemicals, residential, and exports).
North America Focus
North America, led by the U.S., remains a production powerhouse. U.S. marketed natural gas production is forecast near 109 Bcf/d in 2026 (with slight variations in recent EIA updates), supported by Permian growth and LNG export capacity additions. Demand remains broadly flat to modestly rising through 2026–2027 (power generation stable, then increasing), with LNG exports as a key driver. Data centers and industrial demand add upside potential by 2030.
In summary, while global supply abundance (especially LNG) may cap near-term prices, natural gas remains resilient through 2030. North America drives much of the production and export growth, Asia fuels demand, and LPG markets grow steadily in tandem. Uncertainties include policy changes, renewables deployment pace, and geopolitical factors.
